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A decade following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the country and caused disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.

That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."

New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion

The duo have examined the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Partisan language for and against unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or advocates want to engage with even the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. Each writes two essays that aim for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.

Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and provoke dialogue.

"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.

Likelihood of Public Vote

The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has has important lessons to gain from the alternative arguments."

Call for Broader Debate

Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."